What Strategy Makes the Most Profit? Podcast Breakdown

Three experts. One property. Three completely different strategies. And every single one of us walked away.

I recently joined Rob Flux and Oliver Jackson on the Pizza and Property podcast with host Todd Sloan. We walked through a real property in Geelong and each ran the numbers on our own strategy: renovation, development, and subdivision.

The result? A masterclass in why saying "no" is sometimes the best investment decision you can make.

Watch the full episode here.

The Property

The deal was a tired, older property in Geelong sitting on a double block. On paper, it looked like it had potential. Larger land, multiple strategy options, and a price point that could work for investors.

But the closer we looked, the more problems appeared.

Strategy 1: Renovation and Granny Flat (Oliver Jackson)

Oliver from Living Property ran the renovation numbers first. His initial estimate for a cosmetic reno sat around $50,000. That's the kind of number that makes a deal look attractive on a spreadsheet.

Then reality kicked in. The property needed re-stumping. Asbestos removal. Full rewiring. By the time Oliver factored in everything the building actually needed, the renovation budget blew out to over $165,000. More than triple the cosmetic estimate.

At that point, the margin disappeared. A renovation only works when the gap between what you spend and what the property is worth afterwards leaves you with equity. When hidden costs eat through your buffer, you're working for free or worse.

Strategy 2: Property Development (Rob Flux)

Rob from Developer Network ran his Rapid Elimination Method across both the single site and the combined double block. His framework is designed to quickly identify whether a site can support a profitable development.

His conclusion was blunt: just because a property is developable doesn't mean it's profitable.

The numbers didn't stack up. The purchase price, combined with construction costs and the end values Rob could realistically expect in that part of Geelong, left too little margin. The deal failed his feasibility test on both configurations.

Strategy 3: Subdivision and Build (My Approach)

This is where I came in with the one-to-two lot subdivision strategy I use with clients across Victoria, NSW, and Western Australia.

The approach is straightforward: buy a property on a large block, subdivide the land, build on the new lot, and end up with two separately titled assets. When it works, you create equity through development rather than waiting for the market.

But I passed on this one too.

Two things killed it for me. First, tight site access. Getting construction vehicles, materials, and trades through to a rear lot becomes expensive and complicated when the access is narrow. It adds cost and time to every stage of the build. I've seen tight access turn a profitable subdivision into a break-even project.

Second, the property sat on a busy road. That affects both the liveability of the front dwelling and the resale value of anything you build. Buyers and tenants pay less for homes on high-traffic streets. When your end values are lower, the whole feasibility shifts.

Why I Said No

I walked away from this one because the numbers told me to. That's the whole point of having a process. You don't fall in love with a property and then try to make the numbers work. You run the numbers first and let them decide.

Too many investors start with a strategy and then try to force a property to fit it. On this episode, all three of us did the opposite. We each ran our own framework, hit the wall where the numbers stopped working, and walked away.

That's what good due diligence looks like. It's not about finding reasons to say yes. It's about knowing when to say no.

Three Takeaways for Investors

1. Surface-level numbers lie. A $50,000 renovation budget became $165,000 once the real scope was uncovered. Always get building inspections and quotes before committing.

2. Developable does not mean profitable. A big block in a growth area sounds great. But if the purchase price is too high or end values are too low, the maths won't work no matter what you build.

3. Site-specific problems matter. Access, road noise, orientation, and neighbouring properties all affect what you can build and what it will be worth. These aren't small details. They make or break a deal.

Watch the Full Episode

My segment on subdivision strategy starts at 1:05:06 in the video. The full episode runs about 90 minutes and covers all three strategies in detail.

Watch it on YouTube here.

If you're considering a buy-and-develop approach in Melbourne or anywhere else in Australia, the process I walked through in this episode is the same one I use with every client. We run the numbers before you buy, not after.

Get in touch if you want me to assess a property or find one that actually stacks up.

General information only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.